In another recently published column, written by Stephanie Kaza for the SE Examiner in Portland, she discusses the need for a systems view of climate change and its impacts. Here's the text:
From season to season it can be confusing whether hurricanes, floods, droughts, or wildfires are unusually harsh or whether they represent significant climate change. No single event alone can tell us much about climate trends.
If we want to know whether sea level is rising, for example, we have to look at the big picture over time. Taking a systems view can help make sense of isolated incidents.
The global climate system is impressively complex, reflecting patterns on land, ocean, soils, air, and in all life forms. In fact, just about everything is part of the climate system. Major events such as volcanic eruptions and solar flares can trigger significant changes in climate systems.
Climate observers are especially interested in critical limits or thresholds beyond which a system does not return to its former state. They look for feedback processes that intensify or reduce rates of change, say, in a forest’s capacity to store carbon.
These days everyone is talking about “resilience”; the capacity of a system to absorb or recover from the impacts of a stressful event. If too many stressful climate events occur in one place, it can take quite a toll on a city or region’s support systems. If a system is strong enough to maintain its basic structures and functions after a big hit, then it is said to be “resilient.”
One of the frustrating aspects of climate trend prediction is uncertainty. There’s uncertainty about which places will suffer next and how much; uncertainty about which climate feedback patterns will be set in motion with unexpected results; uncertainty about how infrastructure such as subways and sewage systems will behave under duress or about how people will cope in dealing with adverse situations.
Resilience and coping capacity are two things that can be increased to meet the challenges of climate change uncertainty. Planting more trees in a city adds shade cover resilience for future heat extremes.
Neighborhood disaster preparation adds more coping capacity if supply sources are cut off. A coordinated bike route system adds options if roads are blocked to cars.
Sometimes it can seem like there is nothing to be done in the face of the complexity of climate change, but taking a systems view offers a way to focus on the Big Picture.
As a way to begin, we can actively prepare for climate change by building resilience and coping capacity in our neighborhoods, cities, and regions.
This might mean taking care of your street’s bioswale to keep it clear in heavy rains or joining with neighbors in a walking school bus to stay in touch and brainstorming ways to add fun and stability in our relations with others.
As a small piece of this project in Portland, a chance is offered to think creatively about resilience through a “Let’s Talk Climate” series in January-April of 2017 at TaborSpace, 5441 SE Belmont St.
See letstalkclimatepdx.org/p/about.html or ask to join the mailing list at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Stephanie Kaza is professor emerita of University of Vermont. She recently served as Director of the Environmental Program. A native Portlander, she has returned home to add her voice to local climate and sustainability actions.
On Tuesday, April 18th, 7pm, Let’s Talk Climate will host its next forum, titled “Portland’s Urban Heat Islands: Unequal Impacts,” at TaborSpace, 5441 SE Belmont St, Portland. Heat islands reflect areas where temperatures are unusually hot over a prolonged period. As climate change warms the planet, cities are warming at a faster pace due to dark, heat- absorbing roads and roofs. Though Portland is relatively “cool” compared to other U.S. cities, it has become a significant urban heat island, showing climate effects distinct from surrounding fields and forests. In Portland, as in other cities, such heat impacts tend to fall disproportionately on vulnerable populations such as the elderly, the low income, and communities of color. People in these neighborhoods are less likely to have large shade trees, less likely to have air conditioning, and more likely to suffer from asthma and other air quality health problems. Climate equity is a key concern in the city's 2015 Cl
On Wednesday, May 17th, 7pm, Let's Talk Climate hosts the final forum for spring 2017, titled "Vulnerable Populations: Climate Change Impacts on Children and Young People" at TaborSpace Commons, 5441 SE Belmont, Portland. Some think of climate change as a topic for grownups, yet the long term impacts will take their greatest toll on today’s young people. Many teens in the Portland area are already involved in addressing climate issues, and many adult allies are speaking up about the impacts of climate change on future generations, especially those growing up right now under the specter of a warming planet. Children in all communities may bear the greatest physical, emotional, and social vulnerabilities in an economically and politically uncertain climate future. The forum will feature: Oregon House Rep. Alissa Keny-Guyer, moderator Dr. Nicki Nabavizadeh, Pediatric Resident, Doernbecher Children's Hospital, OHSU and Oregon PSR Gordon Levitt ,
Portland’s Climate Action goals call for all new buildings to achieve zero-net carbon emissions by 2030. Can it be done? Let’s Talk Climate takes up this question on Wednesday, February 15 at 7 p.m. in Copeland Commons, TaborSpace, 5441 SE Belmont St., Portland. Advances in science and technology have now made it possible to build homes that cut energy use to close to zero and are still affordable. Just like advances in wind and solar technology, these ultra-low energy buildings are becoming more accessible every day, and some are now being built as affordable housing. Here in the Portland metro area, the low-energy Orchards at Orenco complex, built by REACH, recently completed phase II for families whose income is under $30,000/year. REACH states that “The building is expected to achieve nearly 90% energy reduction for heating and 60-70% less overall energy use compared with a typical building of the same type and size in the Pacific Northwest. Innovative features include